Mets vs. Marlins

“New York is handing the ball to lefty David Peterson, set to regress.”

While his ERA is 3.09, his xERA is 5.36 and he ranks in the 14th percentile or lower among qualified pitchers in terms of xBA allowed, average exit velocity allowed and hard hit percentage allowed.

We’ll try to capitalize on the expected regression by lowering his strikeout position. Peterson ranks 19th in errors and 11th in strikeouts.

Miami ranks in the top half of the league in strikeout rate when playing with a left-handed pitcher. With 68 combined appearances against Peterson overall, this current Marlins lineup has a reasonable strikeout rate of 22.1% and an error rate of 23.7%.

Reds vs. Braves

Hunter Greene is having the best season of his career. The former second-round pick has a 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with a 3.09 xERA.

Green has been a strikeout machine his entire career, he has 126 strikeouts in 110 1/3 innings. His strikeout percentage has dropped slightly this season as he has become more refined in the rest of his game, allowing far less hard contact and walking fewer hitters.

Among qualified pitchers, Green ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in all Statcast majors in strikeouts after ranking in the 30th percentile or lower in the first two seasons of his career. He leads the league in Stuff+ with a rating above the 80th percentile in strikeouts and wiff-rating.

He’s up against a powerful Braves lineup, but one that strikes out a lot. Atlanta strikes out 23.9 percent of the time, the eighth-highest rate in the Majors.

Despite the Braves’ ability to make quality contact, I think Green can keep them from getting to that point with his superior swing and miss. If they can make contact, I still think the new Green can limit enough hard contact to post a quality start.

Green has struck out 6.5 strikeouts. He has exceeded that number in his last two starts and eight times this season. I think Green is turning into an ace and will be able to make strikeouts against the free-swinging Braves.